COVID-19 – How it all began?
The first reports of COVID-19 came to light on 31st December 2019 in Wuhan, a city in Eastern China. The disease allegedly has originated from a Wuhan seafood market where wild animals, birds, rabbits, bats and snakes, where it all traded illegally.
Isn’t it a global market failure?
There has been criticism, primarily from the United States, that the global spread of this pandemic is because of the laxity of the World Health Organization (WHO) in alerting the global community about the severity of this virus. The US also alleges that WHO officials succumbed to pressure from Chinese authorities and didn’t disclose this issue transparently.
A timeline of COVID-19 events recorded on the WHO website shows these criticisms are not without merit. Earlier, when the H1N1 virus was detected on April 15, 2009, WHO declared it as “a public health emergency of international concern” by April 25, 2009. In case of COVID-19, WHO has announced it as a global pandemic only on March 11, 2020, nearly two-and-a-half months after the pandemic was first identified.
Further, there have been questions on WHO’s poor communication to the global community. For instance, the events log shows that WHO initially viewed that COVID-19 transmission from person-to-person as possible but needs more tests and evidence. However, the very next day WHO tweeted that “preliminary investigations by the Chinese authorities had found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission”.
These confusing signals from the WHO have led to poor preparation from several countries in responding to the pandemic in time. For instance, the US recorded its first case on January 20th and by mid-March it spread to most of the states. Many countries all over the globe have witnessed a similar pattern.
Could this have been avoided?
First, China could have taken proactive measures to preempt or eliminate the operations of these illegal wet markets. Second, the global leaders could have avoided the fast spread through a timely and coordinated response. Third, leveraging technology to better address critical intervention points. Some of these could include updates on fast changing guidelines, contact tracing through smart phones, real-time updates on testing facilities, bed availability, and nearest healthcare professionals.
The external costs are dear!
The direct costs of this pandemic are significant loss of human life across the globe. Some countries such as the US, Spain, Italy, Brazil, Russia have been severely affected and reporting top mortality rates. The healthcare costs have shot up significantly and are becoming unmanageable for several governments. In some emerging markets, like India, where a formal state sponsored healthcare system is absent, it is adding a high cost burden to middle and lower middle-income families.
The lock down has an indirect and cascading impact on various sectors with varying degrees. The GDP across several countries has dropped sharply, with most sectors remaining under state-imposed lockdown. Ironically, pharma and healthcare are the only sectors that are seeing a boom. For example, in India, the rich have been able to quarantine themselves, however, the poor and marginalized sections of society are paying significant costs. They have been facing severe economic and social distress because of job loss during the lockdown.
Globally, as of 14 July 2020, there have been 12,929,306 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including 569,738 deaths, reported to WHO. Some quantifiable external costs include—GDP, job losses, market crash, etc.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the global economy will shrink by 3% this year. It highlighted that this decline was the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The stock market has crashed by nearly 20% before recovering in the recent weeks.
The unemployment rate in many countries is rising with estimates ranging between 5%-12%. In India, a recent study shows that nearly 55+ million people are classified as “new poor”, who lost work during this COVID-19 pandemic.
Travel and tourism have significantly affected. As a result, Brent crude oil dipped below $20 to the lowest level in 18 years, although it recovered to US$40+ in recent times. This volatility is creating significant challenges in fiscal planning, especially for countries dependent on oil imports.
Is Vaccine a panacea?
Vaccine discovery will certainly bring back confidence in the global ecosystem. Social life will again return to normalcy, and it will provide a fillip to the economic recovery, as well. People will start spending again, the businesses will reopen, and global trade will kick off improving the overall wealth of nations. Some lessons from this COVID-19 would lead to new social norms, innovative business models (such as virtual interactions), and more progressive (if not proactive) welfare systems from the government.
However, Bill Gates, in a Ted talk in 2015, warned that the world is not ready for the next pandemic, and it proved to be true. Taking a page from his wisdom, some initiatives that could help include:
First, investing in systems for better tracing, testing and treatment faster.
The Government of India has launched an app “Arogyasetu” for contact tracing. However, poor enforcement and lack of smartphones among sizable population have resulted in poor results.
Second, an effective quarantine mechanism to contain the spread.
It means that governments and businesses have to take tough calls to prioritize human welfare over economic metrics such as GDP.
Third, a global coordinated effort to create a potent vaccine and make it affordable to all
Globally, countries and companies are in a race to develop a vaccine. However, they could collaborate on the process to create a most effective vaccine. The governments and trade bodies should make vaccines available to everyone, including the poor and lower income countries.
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